MODELING OF COUNTERACTION TO DESTRUCTIVE INFLUENCE IN SOCIAL NETWORKS
V. A. Minaev, M. P. Sychev, L.S. Kulikov, E.V. Vaitz
In the last decade, the activity of both foreign centers and various groups of influences within the country on the organization of destructive impacts on Russian society and its social groups, especially youth, in order to destabilize the domestic political, socio-economic and criminal situation has significantly increased in social networks. That is why in the Doctrine of information security of the Russian Federation information and psychological effects (IPE) are called important negative factors affecting the state of information security (IS). In this regard, the creation of models to counter destructive information impacts (DII) of manipulative nature in social networks, assessment and forecasting of their impact on social groups are at the present stage actual management tasks. The system-dynamic model of information counteraction of DII in social networks is considered. Its application for the purposes of counteraction to information terrorism, extremism and other destructive influences on modern society by means of information networks is proved. The description of the model in the form of flowcharts in the designations of system dynamics is given. Systems of differential equations are shown. Simulation experiments with models using the promising Anylogic platform were carried out. The model make it possible to forecast DII taking into account the factor of counteraction in social networks, to play different scenarios of the dynamics of these interrelated processes.
Keywords: : simulation modeling, destructive information impact, counteraction, management, social network.
MODELING MANIPULATIVE INFLUENCES IN SOCIAL NETWORKS
V. A. Minaev, M. P. Sychev, L.S. Kulikov, E.V. Vaitz
In the Doctrine of information security of the Russian Federation the main negative factors affecting the state of information security (IS), called informational and technical influences (ITI) and information and psychological influences (IPI). Therefore, modeling, evaluation and forecasting of information influences (II) on social groups and organizing of the corresponding information counteraction (ICA) are urgent tasks of management. The system-dynamic models of information influences in social networks and groups are considered. Their application for purposes of counteraction to information terrorism and extremism is proved. The description in the form of flowcharts is given. Systems of differential equations are presented. Experiments with models using the advanced simulation platform Anylogic were carried out. In a sample of Russian settlements based on cluster analysis found homogeneous typological groups that differ in the average time of transmission of information in social networks. Based on Gibbs ‘ postulate, the system-dynamic model of information influences among students has been successfully tested. The high consistency of simulation results with empirical data (determination coefficients of at least 90%) is shown. Models allow you to forecast the II and ICA and to play different scenarios of the dynamics of these processes.
Keywords: : simulation modeling, information influences, management, social network, topology, typology, cluster analysis.
THE SIMULATION MODELING IN THE PROBLEM OF DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT RESOURCES IN THE ORGANIZATION
E. Ruzitsky, P. S. Korkin
The paper is devoted to modeling the work of the organization with the purpose of increase of efficiency of its functioning. Describes key components of model of business processes of the organization in which is implemented a set of commercial projects. Through the use of simulation modeling is shown to provide a comprehensive review of the development of the organization. The proposed model is based on the fact that you are using the performance of the system as a black box. Define all inputs and outputs for the first layer of the model, which are presented in the form of generators and terminators transaction. For the second layer analyses the main processes associated with the interaction between the organization and its contractors, that is considered material, information and financial flows. Management of financial flows is in the third layer of the model, it defines the structure of operations under accounts of accounting on the basis that there is a contractual relationship of the company and the requirements in the tax law. The article presents the simulation results, given in the simulation model parameters, it is shown that the value of the initial investment should be no less than 25% of the sales volume during the period of project implementation, which leads to the fact that the value of the risk ratio will lie in the range of 0,30-0,35.
Keywords: : management, simulation modeling, decision making.
SIMULINK-MODELING OF EXPRESS LOANS PROCESSES
G.I. Goremykina, N.A. Shchukina
This work continues research of authors on modeling of processes of express loans and their optimization. Express loan is a consumer loan for the purchase of goods directly at the point of sale, without visiting the bank. The processes of issuing such loans are studied to obtain an assessment of various options for the development strategy of the credit department management system of one of the largest Russian banks. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were formulated and solved, namely: the analysis of the consumer lending market was conducted; a procedure was performed to verify that a sample of random variables belongs to one of the distribution functions and the corresponding numerical characteristics of the obtained distribution; a comprehensive assessment of the functioning of the bank’s branch for the issuance of express loans in the current and forecast period was received. Considering the branch of the bank as a queuing system, an imitation model was created, the input stream of applications of which has an exponential distribution, and the customer service time is subject to the normal distribution law. For the computer implementation of the simulation model, the interactive Simulink environment integrated into the MatLab application package was used. The results of the simulation experiment are given and the analysis of the number of potential borrowers and the total amount of loans given to them is made.
Keywords: : express loans, simulation modeling, queuing system, MatLab, Simulink.
ARCHITECTURE OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEM OF ORGANIZATION OF ARCTIC MARITIME CARGO TRANSPORTATION
UDC 004.8:656.614(3) (985)
E.Y. Sobolevskaya, S.V. Glushkov, N.G. Levchenko
The analysis of the software intended for management of sea freight transportation processes is has been carried out. A number of shortcomings have been identified in the existing software used to organize work in specific navigation areas, such as the Northern Sea Route: lack of decision support systems, lack of analysis to calculate time and cost of cargo delivery. The architecture of an intelligent system for the organization of sea freight traffic has been developed, taking into account the difficult conditions of navigation in the Arctic. The architectures of two modules have been developed: calculation of the cost sea cargo transportation; calculation and analysis of a safe and faster route depending on the month (time of year). The process of simulation modeling is based on the methods of artificial intelligence – the neural network, expert systems, the mathematical tool of fuzzy logic. The architecture of the intellectual system of organization of sea freight traffic with a successful implementation will allow: to provide the senior management of the shipping company with a predictable analytics; to support decision-making; to monitor the process of cargo transportation in real time; to carry out schemes for calculating the effective use of icebreakers; to calculate the best possible way of delivery; to provide on-demand online forecast for transportation at a certain point in time, minimize the cost of shipping, delay in transit, risks to cargo safety.
Keywords: : sea cargo transportation, Northern Sea Route, Arctic, intellectual systems, simulation modeling.
DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATION MODEL IN THE DESCRIPTION OF THE HOTEL SYSTEMS
H. I. Besher, A.A.Maximova
The paper discusses the possibilities of simulation as a tool, is effective in the modeling of hotel systems. It is proposed to use as such a tool simulation. Describes the main components of the simulation model in the description of the hotel systems. Given a mathematically formalized optimization model of the hotel complex. In the optimization method is used based on linear programming. Given a software implementation of the method and an example of calculating the maximum revenue in hotel services.
Keywords: optimization, hotel services, simulation modeling, and tourism.
THE SIMULATION OF WORKING OF A TRAVEL COMPANY IN THE SEARCH FOR ITS EFFECTIVE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
T.A.Tsepkovskaya,V.N.Kostrova, Besher Hussam Iyad
The paper discusses the possibility of simulating the operation of a tourism organization on the basis of simulation approach. The characteristics of some software systems that currently exist and used in simulation are given. The scheme of functioning of tourist enterprises is shown. A comparison of efficiency of different systems is carried out.
Keywords: :simulation modeling, travel agency, client, structure.