PREDICTING CORONARY HEART DISEASE IN LOCOMOTIVE CREW EMPLOYEES BASED ON HYBRID FUZZY MODELS
N.A. Korenevsky, D.A. Mednikov, S.N. Rodionova, V.V. Starodubtsev
The aim of the study is to improve the quality of predicting coronary heart disease in railway locomotive crews by developing hybrid fuzzy mathematical models that work under conditions of incomplete and fuzzy description of the object of research. Taking into account the poorly formalized structure of the studied class of States, the technology of soft computing and, in particular, the methodology for the synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules, which has proven itself well in solving problems with a similar data structure and type of uncertainty, is chosen as the basic mathematical apparatus. The chosen synthesis method allows us to take into account the multiplicative effect of heterogeneous and unstable endogenous and exogenous risk factors on the human body in the locomotive cabs. The obtained mathematical models for predicting ischemic heart disease in locomotive crew workers take into account cabin ergonomics, levels of psycho-emotional stress and fatigue, mixed electromagnetic fields in combination with individual risk factors for systemic ischemic damage as initial data. In the course of mathematical modeling and expert evaluation, it was shown that the obtained predictive model provides confidence in the correct forecast of at least 0.89, which is a fairly “good” result for medical diagnostics tasks.
Keywords: mathematical model, fuzzy logic, forecasting, locomotive crew, coronary heart disease.
AUTOMATED PROCESS CONTROL SYSTEM FOR OBTAINING ELEMENTAL SULFUR BASED ON RISK ASSESSMENT
D.V. Pechenkin, B.S. Dmitrievsky, I.A. Shcherbatov
We consider this type of management objects, the functioning of which occurs under various types of uncertainty and requires the development of a specific approach to management, analysis and evaluation of a variety of factors that affect the work and are not amenable to quantitative and qualitative description. In this paper, the task of controlling the technological process of obtaining sulfur is formulated. The analysis of the technological installation for obtaining elemental sulfur by the Claus method as a control object is carried out. Risk factors for the process under consideration are highlighted. A model for identifying the current state of the control object is proposed. The algorithm of management intellectualization, which acts as a base for the developed expert subsystem, is synthesized. The structure and order of functional interaction of the expert subsystem of the automated process control system with the decision-maker is given. The author developed an algorithmic support for the expert subsystem of the automated control system for the technological process of sulfur production, designed for integration into the operating environment of the operator’s automated workplace. The efficiency of the synthesized expert subsystem is evaluated by using a training simulator that simulates the operation of the control panel of the process unit for obtaining elemental sulfur using the Claus method. Based on the results of modeling 35 emergencies, 100% were identified by the expert subsystem, of which 28% were prevented at an early stage by implementing the generated recommendations.
Keywords:automation, sulfur production, Claus method, technological process, emergency, fuzzy logic, Mamdani, risk factor, expert subsystem.
SYNTHESIS OF A FUZZY CONTROLLER OF HEATING STEAM TEMPERATURE DURING THE PROCESS OF CARE TIRES VULCANIZATION UNDER POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
B. Yahiaoui, A.A. Mitrokhin, V.L Burkovsky
This paper considers the technological process of vulcanization of automobile tires from the point of view of a potentially dangerous process. Currently, technological processes are becoming more complex, evolving most of the time in conditions of uncertainty, incompleteness and indistinctness of information. One of the most common methods of process control today is still PID controllers, due to their ease of implementation, low cost and their satisfactory results in the control of linear systems. In order to adequately control potentially dangerous technological processes, it is necessary to develop new models and algorithms based on new intelligent approaches. One of the most promising approaches to process control is models based on fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets. The paper presents the General mathematical structure of the vulcanization process control system. This paper presents the synthesis of a fuzzy controller of heating steam temperature of the car tire vulcanization process. .
Keywords:fuzzy inference systems (FIS), fuzzy logic, vulcanization, technological process, potentially dangerous objects.
MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO ASSESS THE INFLUENCE OF ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS ON THE EMERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES IN THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR
M. A. Myasoedova, N. A. Korenevskiy, L. V. Starodubtseva,
M. V. Pisarev
The aim of the study is to develop mathematical models for assessing the impact of electromagnetic fields of different modality and intensity on the human body providing a solution to the problems of assessing the health of people employed in the electric power industry with acceptable accuracy for medical practice.The technology of soft computing and, in particular, is chosen as the basic mathematical apparatus, the methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision models developed in the South-West state University has proven itself in the synthesis of mathematical models of forecasting, early and differential diagnosis of diseases with a similar structure of the studied classes of States. As an example, a mathematical model for predicting the appearance and development of immune system diseases in employees of electric power enterprises of the Kursk region is described. Fuzzy mathematical models use membership functions with basic variables that take into account the intensity of the electromagnetic field of industrial frequency, work experience in the power industry and individual risk factors that provoke the appearance and development of diseases of the nervous system. In the course of mathematical modeling and expert evaluation it was shown that the use of the chosen methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy mathematical models allowed to obtain a mathematical model of forecasting and development of diseases of the immune system in employees of the electric power complex with confidence exceeding 0.9.
Keywords: :mathematical model, fuzzy logic, occupational diseases, immune system, power engineering, forecasting
APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC IN THE SYSTEM OF AUTOMATIC CONTROL OF PNEUMATIC GUN SHOOTING DURING FIRE FIGHTING
A.B. Migranov, I.S. Maksyutov
The article describes the obtaining of mathematical model of technical object aircannons on the basis of methods of fuzzy logic. This topic is very relevant, because at the moment none of the existing automatic fire extinguishing systems does not provide a quick and effective elimination of fire with minimal losses. As a device for obtaining information, a thermal imager is used, which records an increase in temperature in the event of a fire and a drop in temperature in the event of a projectile entering the flame core. When the maximum value of temperature there is a change in the values of the launch angle and the control signal, adjusts the value of the pressure exerted on the projectile. Based on the formula for calculating the trajectory of the projectile, logical rules are drawn up, in which the input data are the launch angle and pressure, and at the output – the distance that the projectile will fly. The paper analyzes the characteristics of the behavior of the projectile and the result of its hit the target. On the basis of methods of fuzzy logic control system determines the area of the fire or maximizing the temperatures and calculates the rotation of the gun and distance for firing a projectile. For fire extinguishing installations (air guns) it is proposed to use an automated fire extinguishing control system based on the developed fuzzy rules.
Keywords: :fuzzy logic, fuzzy system, air gun, fire fighting.
FUZZY MODELS OF THE ESTIMATION OF THE LEVEL OF ERGONOMICS OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE STATE OF HEALTH OF A HUMAN OPERATOR TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE FUNCTIONAL RESERVE OF THE BODY
N.A.Korenevskiy, S.N.Rodionova, T.N.Govorukhina, M.A.Myasoedova
The paper studies the impact of the ergonomics of technical systems on the emergence and development of occupational diseases of a human operator, taking into account the functional reserve of his body. In view of the complexity of the analytical description of the interaction mechanisms of the human-technical system, a methodology for the synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules, focused on solving poorly formalizable problems, was chosen as the mathematical apparatus of research. In the framework of the chosen methodology, the individual estimates of the ergonomic level by basic indicators are averaged by the functions of the ergonomic level, which are aggregated into final decision rules. Evaluation of the impact of ergonomic level and other significant risk factors is carried out using the appropriate membership functions, which are aggregated into fuzzy models of forecasting and early diagnosis of occupational diseases. Using the example of diseases of the nervous system in drivers of Russian-made tractors, it has been shown that the simultaneous consideration of ergonomic risk factors and the size of the functional reserve with other significant endogenous and exogenous factors helps to improve the quality of decisions made about the health status of the human body. At the same time, confidence in the correctness of the prognosis and early diagnosis exceeds 0.86, which allows us to recommend the resulting decision-making models in the practice of occupational physicians.
Keywords: : ergonomics, functional reserve, health status, membership functions, fuzzy logic, prediction, early diagnosis.
MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE CHOICE OF THE PATTERNS OF PREVENTION OF THE RECURRENCE OF GANGRENE OF THE LOWER LIMBS
A.V. Bykov, N.A. Korenevsky, S.A. Parkhomenko, A.V. Boytsov, E.V. Cymbal, L.V. Starodubtseva
The work is devoted to the actual problem of improving the quality of care for patients suffering from critical ischemia of the lower extremities, turning into gangrene, which may result in amputation and even death. In the course of the research it was shown that the task of predicting the recurrence of lower extremity gangrene belongs to the class of poor results, which was the basis for choosing the method of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules as the basic method for studying the methodological synthesis. During the synthesis of fuzzy decision rules, the choice of informative features obtained during surveys and inspections, instrumental and laboratory research methods was justified. As the basic elements of fuzzy decision rules applied to a class of high risk of gangrene recurrence, which are aggregated into a fuzzy rule for assessing the confidence that the patient will have a relapse of the lower extremities. : Scale of confidence in the development of gangrene: – confidence in the recurrence of gangrene; II-medium confidence in the recurrence of gangrene; III – high confidence in the recurrence of gangrene; IV – very high confidence in the recurrence of gangrene. The classification decision is made based on the maximum value of the prediction functions. For each of the selected classes, the appropriate scheme for the prevention of lower extremity gangrene recurrence, whose effectiveness was tested using measurement theory, as well as the analyzed mathematical model of their choice depending on the degree of lower extremity gangrene recurrence. In the course of statistical tests, it was shown that, compared with traditional schemes to prevent the use of the proposed technologies, increase the rate of positive results by 2.4 times (58%) and reduce the risk of limb amputation by 2.5 times (73%). The results obtained guarantee the proposed mathematical models for use in the practice of vascular surgeons and angiologists.
Keywords: : gangrene, lower limbs, prediction, mathematical model, fuzzy logic, prevention, model G. Rush.
FORECASTING OF THE GENERATION OF THE LOWER LIMBS ON THE BASIS OF HYBRID FUZZY MODELS
N.A. Korenevskiy, T.I. Subbotina, I.I. Khripina, S.A. Parkhomenko,
The work is devoted to the urgent problem of improving the quality of care for patients suffering from critical ischemia of the lower limbs, passing into gangrene, which can result in amputation and even death. In the course of the studies, it was shown that the task of predicting the origin and development of gangrene of the lower limbs belongs to the class of poorly formalizable problems with an indistinct data structure, which served as the basis for choosing as a basic research apparatus the methodology for the synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules. During the synthesis of fuzzy decisive rules, the selection of informative signs obtained during surveys and examinations, instrumental and laboratory methods of investigation was justified. As the basic elements of fuzzy decision rules, the functions of belonging to the class of high risk of gangrene development are obtained, which are aggregated into an unclear rule of confidence assessment that the patient will develop gangrene of the lower limbs. On a scale of confidence in the development of gangrene, experts determined the secondary functions of belonging to such predictable classes of patient conditions as: I – low confidence in gangrene development; II – moderate confidence in the development of gangrene; III – high confidence in the development of gangrene; IV – very high confidence in the development of gangrene. The decision to classify is taken based on the maximum value of prognostic membership functions.The performed mathematical modeling and expert evaluation of the fuzzy models obtained showed that their predictive confidence is at least 0.9. The same quality of forecasting was confirmed during statistical tests on control samples of 100 persons per class for such indicators as diagnostic specificity, sensitivity and efficiency, as well as prognostic significance of positive and negative results.
The results obtained make it possible to recommend the proposed mathematical models for use in the practice of cardiovascular surgeons and angiologists.
Keywords: : gangrene, lower extremities, prediction, mathematical model, fuzzy logic.