SITUATIONAL MODEL OF DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING DATA IN THE CONDITIONS OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT
I.G. Ivanova, A.D. Danilov, K.Y. Gusev
The paper presents a model of a decision-making system based on environmental monitoring. Air pollution in modern cities is a very urgent problem that is solved at various levels of management. The largest source of pollution is the road network. However, managing traffic flows within urban areas is an impossible or difficult task because of the existing infrastructure of the city. Therefore, we propose a system that, based on the results of training in existing cities, will form recommendations for the development of urban areas, taking into account the level of air pollution. The paper proposes a fuzzy system for supporting decision-making in the conditions of urban development. The article shows the formation of a knowledge base based on retrospective data to improve the accuracy of forecasting, as well as from the simulation environment for increasing the speed of sensing. Ranked recommendations for reduction of pollution of atmospheric air under conditions of development of urban areas. In the fuzzy situational model, a method is proposed for selecting the closest, equal situation from the knowledge base, taking into account the maximum value of the degree of belonging. The developed models can be used as a means of improving the quality of management and decision-making in the conditions of urban development.
Keywords:decision-making, environmental monitoring, fuzzy systems.
MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS ON THE BASIS OF OPTIMIZATION METHODS AND EXPERT APPROACHES
M.V. Pitolin, Y.P. Preobrazhenskiy
Currently, there is a development of various methods and approaches related to the management of distributed energy systems. Using them requires the collection of a large amount of information. When using rating assessments of the functioning of energy systems, a number of problems arise. In managing the resource efficiency of a distributed energy system, the issue of making a rational decision based on the use of information from two sources is essential: a formalized solution to the problem using optimization modeling and expert evaluation of its results. The need to combine such information is determined by the nature of the multi-criteria choice of resource support in the case of taking into account the set of monitored performance indicators of the distributed energy system in this task. Moreover, in most cases, solving the resource efficiency problem by one criterion reduces to a linear programming problem with continuous or integer variables. This paper shows how the assessment of the effectiveness of distributed energy systems is formed. An optimization model of the problem is developed and procedures for the expert evaluation of managerial decisions are formed. The results of the presented work are useful for managing complex distributed energy systems.
Keywords: distributed energy system, optimization, expert assessment, decision making, system analysis.
TELECOMMUNICATION TRAFFIC ANALYSIS USING ORANGE ANALYTICAL SYSTEM
S.V. Palmov, A.A. Diyazitdinova, O.Y. Gubareva
To simplify the task of ensuring information security is possible through data mining usage. This technology can be used to predict attacks on the information systems. Decision tree is one of the effective tools for predictive models building. Orange is an analytical system that contains a large number of data mining algorithms, including a decision tree. With help of the system made an analysis of real data on network attacks obtained during the experimental study, with the aim of predicting DDoS attacks. Five metrics were used to assess the quality of work: accuracy, specificity, precision, recall and F-measure. The results of the analysis are presented in tabular form. The results were compared with the forecasts created by iWizard-E, an intelligent decision support system using a modified decision tree algorithm. iWizard-E surpasses Orange in the first three metrics, but inferior in the last two. The implementation of this algorithm in the Orange and iWizard-E systems cannot be applied to analyze the data of the above type, since they form forecasts with low reliability. It is necessary to improve the decision tree aimed at improving the quality of the generated prognostic models in the context of increasing the values of the “completeness” metric.
Keywords: :artificial intelligence, data mining, Orange system, decision making, traffic, F-measure.
THE DECISION-MAKING PROCEDURE BASED ON MULTI-STAGE MODELLING AND OPTIMIZATION OF DEVELOPING SYSTEMS
D. A. Nedosekin
The relevance of the research is based on the fact that the effectiveness of the main life activity systems is significantly determined by the development of high-tech technological systems that promote them (for example, equipment related to radiotelephone communication, equipment related to digital television, equipment for 3G, 4G-technologies). When considering a multidimensional interaction among them is education related to developing systems (ALS) (for example, include information telecommunication computer network). The structure of the decision-making system in the management of the SRS is given and the components of its mathematical support are described. The first group of procedures in the mathematical support of the JWP is related to the application of computational algorithms for determining the indicators reflected for the main and supporting systems in the standard methods, and the formation on their basis of the basic optimization problems for two subclasses of the SRS. The second group includes multi-module algorithmic procedures for choosing a rational control option, which includes, in addition to the module for the formation of a plurality of perspective options based on the results of randomized search, a preliminary module for the transformation of basic optimization problems, the final decision-making module using expert information. The structure of the index of readiness of regions to information society is given. The index is built on the basis of aggregation of values of indicators, and aggregation takes place at several levels, allowing to build ratings of regions in separate directions and factors of development of information society with varying degrees of detail. It is shown how the method of calculation of the index of readiness of the region to information society is used. The structural scheme of formation of optimization model of infocommunication technology (ICT) of the system is given.
Keywords: decision-making, system, optimization, information society, aggregation.
METHODS OF OPTIMIZING ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SYSTEMS USING TECHNOLOGIES OF MODELING BUSINESS PROCESSES
G.B. Suyunova, N.A. Gaivoronskaya, E.V. Polovinko
This article describes several methodologies and tools that help to simulate business processes in an enterprise in order to make timely management decisions and optimize economic and social systems. The necessity of using various methods of modeling, reorganizing and automating business processes as a means of increasing the efficiency of solving management and decision-making problems in social and economic systems is indicated. It is noted that today the modeling of business processes of the organization is a traditional activity of business analysts of Russian enterprises, which can be a necessary tool for making correct management decisions. It is indicated that there are many different principles of notation. The article also noted that not all notations are equally applicable to the solution of various problems. The eEPC notation used to model business processes in the form of a sequence of events and functions is discussed in more detail, here are its advantages and disadvantages. It is indicated that the tool using the eEPC notation for process modeling is the ArisExpress platform, intended for integrated management of business processes. The article considers two key concepts of the specified modeling environment – these are the concepts of Event and Activity. It is noted that the event always causes the necessity of execution of a concrete action, and the execution of this action always ends with the onset of an event. It is also indicated that in order for the diagram to be more complete and clear, the notation provides for several more standard elements, such as: Role», «Document», «IT system». As a conclusion, it is noted that when constructing these models, it is very simple to make mistakes without knowing the rules by which they are compiled. Such errors lead in the subsequent to the discrepancy of the logic of the process, and as a result – the adoption of incorrect or untimely management decisions.
Keywords: control, decision-making, social system, economic system, notation, optimization, model.
THE MULTIPLE CHOICE IN THE MANAGEMENT OF DEVELOPING SYSTEMS
D. A. Nedosekin
In this paper we consider the problem of developing control related systems (CRS). They affect the way in which development is carried out adjacent to high technology systems. The article focused on the creation of algorithmic procedures, allowing for the management of CRS. The choice of a promising option in the optimization problem comes from the fact that ITT system is a progressive system in the structure of CRS. In procedure identified and described three modules. The block diagram of the algorithmic procedure of control selection boundary conditions for the development of a singly linked system and a block diagram of the algorithmic procedures for the management of reallocation of the financial resource of the base system. Procedure multialternative choice has the character of formalizing expert knowledge in the form of grades compatible promising directions of development of promotion system and can achieve effective interaction of all components connected developing system. The choice of option a valid boundary conditions for the development of information and telecommunication technologies (ITT) in the region is carried out by experts on the basis of a comparison of dominant strategies. Analyzed the sample statistics over a certain period of development component of the ITT in the period that gave opportunity to confirm the performance optimization.
Keywords: :decision making, system, multialternative aggregation, optimization, management, model, algorithm.
THE SIMULATION MODELING IN THE PROBLEM OF DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT RESOURCES IN THE ORGANIZATION
E. Ruzitsky, P. S. Korkin
The paper is devoted to modeling the work of the organization with the purpose of increase of efficiency of its functioning. Describes key components of model of business processes of the organization in which is implemented a set of commercial projects. Through the use of simulation modeling is shown to provide a comprehensive review of the development of the organization. The proposed model is based on the fact that you are using the performance of the system as a black box. Define all inputs and outputs for the first layer of the model, which are presented in the form of generators and terminators transaction. For the second layer analyses the main processes associated with the interaction between the organization and its contractors, that is considered material, information and financial flows. Management of financial flows is in the third layer of the model, it defines the structure of operations under accounts of accounting on the basis that there is a contractual relationship of the company and the requirements in the tax law. The article presents the simulation results, given in the simulation model parameters, it is shown that the value of the initial investment should be no less than 25% of the sales volume during the period of project implementation, which leads to the fact that the value of the risk ratio will lie in the range of 0,30-0,35.
Keywords: : management, simulation modeling, decision making.
INFORMATION MODEL OF DEVELOPING CORPORATE INFORMATIONAL SYSTEMS FOR SOLVING THE PROBLEMS OF ORGANIZATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF THE ENTERPRISE
Actual issues of sustainable activity of enterprises in the market and development in the conditions of tough competition are reasonably based on modern information technologies and information systems. The well-known paradigm of the BPM concept is changing to the paradigm of the S-BPM concept.
The article analyzes both concepts and suggests an information model for the development of corporate information systems (CIS) for solving organizational management problems (PMO).
It is shown that when developing the CIS for the solution of PMO tasks, information technologies of the BPM concept are actively used. In order to make effective decisions by the top managers, they consider the tasks of system analysis and activity management. In solving these problems, business processes are modeled, where the decomposition of these processes plays a significant role. Key element of the concept: Top managers – Business Intelligence of the enterprise.
In recent years, when developing the CIS for solving the tasks of the PMO, the specialists began to introduce new information technologies of the S-BPM concept. This concept is based on the decision of production tasks directly by their executors and offers appropriate tools for modeling processes. At the same time, multiple problems of technological processes and actions are considered, allowing performers to solve them in the best possible way taking into account current production needs. Key element of the concept: Managers of the lower and middle levels of the enterprise.
The analysis of the BPM concept shows that the main principle of its information technologies in the development of CIS for solving the tasks of PMO is top-down design. Analysis of the concept of S-BPM shows that the main principle of its information technology in the development of CIS for solving the tasks of PMO is an upward projection. Taking into account the positive and negative aspects of both design principles shows that the information technologies of the S-BPM concept cannot replace the information technology of the BPM concept. A rational solution that allows to increase the efficiency of the development of CIS for solving the tasks of PMO is the integration of BPM and S-BPM technologies. Such an information model is proposed in this article. It facilitates the joint work of specialists in various areas of activity and the adoption of objective decisions by the management of the enterprise
Keywords: : system analysis, BPM, S-BPM, corporate information system, decision-making.
THE MODULAR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM OF DECISION-MAKING AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION ON THE BASIS OF MODELS OF MULTIALTERNATIVE OPTIMIZATION, DEVELOPING NETWORKS
D. A. Nedosekin
The research urgency is caused by the fact that for the present stage the efficiency of the development of the basic systems of life significantly depends on the development of supportive high-tech technological system (e.g., radio telephone communication equipment, digital television equipment, equipment for 3G, 4G technologies). In the multifaceted interaction between them is education related to developing systems (DS). In this regard, this article aims to identify the role of information and communication systems (ICS) (which, for example, is information-telecommunication computer network) as contributing to the structure of DS and assess the possibility of increasing the efficiency of its management on the basis of models and algorithms of multialternative aggregation. A leading approach to the study of this problem is the use of components of mathematical software that enables holistically consider optimization problems of the multialternative aggregation when managing classes of DS. The article presents the structure of the DS and the structure of the system of decision-making in the management of DS. The procedure of forming the multialternative optimization problems of aggregation of primary and enabling systems differ in the way the introduction of alternative variables through multi-dependency of criteria and constraints and allow us to start the algorithm performance find the maximum efficiency of the development of the coupled system when performing boundary conditions for the distribution of financial resource. The materials of the article are of practical value to professionals who are effective way to choose promising areas of ICS development.
Keywords: decision making, system, multialternative aggregation, optimization, control of organization, system simulation, algorithm.