PREDICTION OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PROPAGATION OF THE VIRUS IN A COMPUTER NETWORK USING A BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER
Today, Internet is considered to be one of the most useful tools for people to communicate, find information and to buy goods and services. Most computers are connected to each other in some way. The Internet is the primary medium used by attackers to commit computer crimes. They share the same operating system software and communicate with all other computers using the standard set of protocols. This has spawned a new generation of criminals. The similarity between the spread of a biological virus and worm propagation encourages researchers to adopt an epidemic model to the network environment. This approach is most effective for describing the computer viruses propagation on the network. The article uses the results of the theory of mathematical epidemiology to analyze the SIRS model. The dynamics of the virus propagation to the computer network is described using a system of differential equations. The stability of the network to the spread of malware is investigated. An equilibrium position is found. The basic reproduction number is determined. The dependence of the virus attack evolution on the basic reproduction number is analyzed. Numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical conclusions.
Keywords: mathematical model, computer virus, virus dynamics, basic reproduction number, nonlinear system of differential equations, stability of the system.