MULTI-METHOD APPROACH TO THE MODELING OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS BASED ON MONITORING DATA ANALYSIS
Y.E. Lvovich, A.V. Pitolin, G.P. Sapozhnikov
The article justifies the necessity of building various classes of mathematical models of complex systems as well as the relevance of a multi-method approach to the processing and modeling of monitoring and rating information, due to the variety of management tasks and resource efficiency optimization management of a non-profit educational organization in combination with rating management. The starting points are tentatively reduced sets of input indicators influencing the output indicators of a management unit functioning. It is based on time series forecasting on the base of additive and elementary functions. The dependence of the output performance on the input ones is determined by the regression model with the inclusion of time variables. The transition from a regression model to a neural network model is carried out, to improve the accuracy of forecasting for the purpose of managerial decision making at a certain planning horizon. The transformation procedure of initial time series into statistical samples of their prognostic estimates followed by randomized training sample development is proposed. The paper also demonstrates that the multi-method approach to the modelling provides a solution to a number of tasks concerning complex systems resource efficiency management.
Keywords: forecasting, modeling, management, resource efficiency, randomization