UDC 004.94
doi: 10.26102/2310-6018/2019.24.1.003

V. A. Minaev, M. P. Sychev, L.S. Kulikov, E.V. Vaitz

In the Doctrine of information security of the Russian Federation the main negative factors affecting the state of information security (IS), called informational and technical influences (ITI) and information and psychological influences (IPI). Therefore, modeling, evaluation and forecasting of information influences (II) on social groups and organizing of the corresponding information counteraction (ICA) are urgent tasks of management. The system-dynamic models of information influences in social networks and groups are considered. Their application for purposes of counteraction to information terrorism and extremism is proved. The description in the form of flowcharts is given. Systems of differential equations are presented. Experiments with models using the advanced simulation platform Anylogic were carried out. In a sample of Russian settlements based on cluster analysis found homogeneous typological groups that differ in the average time of transmission of information in social networks. Based on Gibbs ‘ postulate, the system-dynamic model of information influences among students has been successfully tested. The high consistency of simulation results with empirical data (determination coefficients of at least 90%) is shown. Models allow you to forecast the II and ICA and to play different scenarios of the dynamics of these processes.

Keywords: : simulation modeling, information influences, management, social network, topology, typology, cluster analysis.

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