ANALYSIS OF THE ALCOHOLIC PSYCHOSES AND ALCOHOLISM INCIDENCE BASED ON THE RESULTS OF FORECASTING AND CLASSIFICATION MODELING

UDC 616.89

V.P. Kosolapov, I.I. Manakin

The authors analyzed the alcoholic psychoses and alcoholism morbidity of the population of the Russian Federation, Central Federal District and Voronezh Region based on results of forecasting and classification modeling. From the time-series analysis the authors revealed major trends in population morbidity by means of exponential smoothing and gave short forecasts. The paper classifies the districts of Voronezh Region with a view to alcoholic psychoses and alcoholism incidence that allows to outline the areas with favorable and unfavorable situation in terms of the current state and its evolution.

Keywords: classification modeling and forecasting, time-series analysis, exponential smoothing, alcoholic psychosis and alcoholism, classification of geographical units.

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