FORECASTING OF MANIPULATIVE INFORMATION INFLUENCES
IN SOCIAL NETWORKS: TERRITORIAL ASPECT
V.A. Minaev, K.M. Bondar, E.V. Vaits, A.V. Kantysheva
Negative factors affecting information security of countries are described. Special attention is paid to the information-psychological effects highlighted in the Doctrine of information security of the Russian Federation. It is pointed to the expansion of the use of simulation methods for modeling information impacts on social groups and the corresponding information counteraction. The necessary definitions related to the use of the simulation approach proposed for the study of complex nonlinear systems to the modeling of information influences in social networks are given. The description of the system-dynamic model of information counteraction in the form of differential equations system is given. Simulation experiments were carried out with the model on the Anylogic software platform and analytical dependences of characteristic times reflecting the susceptibility of the population of the country’s settlements to influence through social networks, including mechanisms of negative influence, on the statistical characteristics of users were obtained. Typology of settlements of the Russian Federation on characteristics of information propagation in social networks of regions is carried out. It is concluded that the identified relationships can be used to predict manipulative information effects and planning information counteraction. In addition, it is emphasized that the simulation model allows, using statistically observed variables, to estimate parameters and variables characterizing the dynamics of information propagation in the population, which are statistically unobservable.
Keywords: simulation model, information manipulative influence, forecasting, counteraction, social network, typology, cluster analysis.