ACMEOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF EXPERT PROCEDURE ERRORS USING THE METHOD OF ASSESSING THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN AN EXPERT
Expert assessment in modern conditions plays an increasingly important role. There are problems when accurate calculations are not applicable to assess, select and justify decisions. In such cases, expert methods are used. The proposed method for assessing the degree of trust in an expert takes into account the reputation of the expert as a long-term indicator of the quality of his examination, and the value of feedback as a short-term indicator of the state of the expert. Together, these 2 indicators make it possible to calculate the expert confidence coefficient. Using the described method, an expert procedure is carried out. However, errors in conducting expert procedures cast doubt on the accuracy of the results of the examination. Therefore, the analysis of such errors is a necessary step to test the feasibility of practical application of the proposed new solutions and methods in the framework of expert procedures. The article carried out an acmeological analysis of the errors of the expert procedure using the method of assessing the degree of confidence in the expert.Methodological, technological, technical, psychological, organizational, regulatory and other types of errors in the performance of expert assessments are considered. The article provides examples of identifying various kinds of errors in the described expert procedure. A reasonable explanation is given of the options for eliminating most common errors.
Keywords:acmeological analysis, expert procedure, expert assessment, trust in an expert, reputation, reputation system.
THE SOFTWARE PACKAGE FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX STRUCTURED RECONFIGURABLE OBJECTS BASED ON MODELS OF TYPICAL MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS
D.P. Lashchenov, V.L. Burkovsky
Currently, special-purpose communications networks are widely used in government bodies, bodies that carry out the functions of the country’s defense, state security and law enforcement. In connection with the features of the functioning of infocommunication systems and communication networks for special purposes, it must be borne in mind that they are deployed and provide management and interaction within the existing departmental and interdepartmental communication systems. The article proposes a model for the formation of a set of means to counter threats to information security in communication networks for special purposes. A description of such complexes is given, situations and grounds for their application are considered. Attention is drawn to the identification of common technological features of the formation of a set of means to counter threats to information security in communication networks for special purposes. To formulate requirements for complexes of means of counteracting threats to information security in communication networks for special purposes, a rule base has been compiled on the basis of which certain countermeasures will be selected. The authors modeled the functioning of a complex of countermeasures using the apparatus of linguistic variables and fuzzy expert systems. Based on the results obtained, requirements can be proposed for creating a set of means to counter threats to information security in special communication networks. The mathematical apparatus used in this article, based on the use of linguistic variables and fuzzy expert systems, can fully characterize the dependence of the effectiveness of countermeasures on the totality of implemented protective measures.
Keywords:simulation, reconfigurable manufacturing system, complex structured object, software package, optimization, queuing system, AnyLogic, decision support system.
А CLASSIFICATION APPROACH BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DEEP NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTING FAILURES OF COMPLEX MULTI-OBJECT SYSTEMS
K.A. Melekhina, P.P. Anan’ev, A.V. Plotnikova, S.A. Shestak
Scientific and technical progress has contributed to a rapid increase in the complexity of systems and their functions, which is especially characteristic of various fields of modern industry. Here, the cost of failure of equipment can be very high and sometimes lead to invaluable losses associated with the loss of life. Maintenance of such systems requires high material costs, but still does not exclude the possibility of failures. This indicates that the problem of ensuring the reliability of complex multi-object systems is still far from being solved. In this regard, the task of ensuring reliable operation of systems while minimizing the cost of their maintenance and maintenance is now in the first place. The solution of this problem is impossible without the development and implementation of intelligent systems that perform the functions of predictive analytics and predictive maintenance. This article proposes a hybrid neural network model for predicting failures of complex multi-object systems based on the classification approach, aimed at improving the operational reliability of equipment at minimal cost. The results of computational experiments confirming the high efficiency of the proposed solution are presented
Keywords:Forecasting failures, data-driven methods, deep neural networks, LSTM, CNN
SYNTHESIS OF A FUZZY CONTROLLER OF HEATING STEAM TEMPERATURE DURING THE PROCESS OF CARE TIRES VULCANIZATION UNDER POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
B. Yahiaoui, A.A. Mitrokhin, V.L Burkovsky
This paper considers the technological process of vulcanization of automobile tires from the point of view of a potentially dangerous process. Currently, technological processes are becoming more complex, evolving most of the time in conditions of uncertainty, incompleteness and indistinctness of information. One of the most common methods of process control today is still PID controllers, due to their ease of implementation, low cost and their satisfactory results in the control of linear systems. In order to adequately control potentially dangerous technological processes, it is necessary to develop new models and algorithms based on new intelligent approaches. One of the most promising approaches to process control is models based on fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets. The paper presents the General mathematical structure of the vulcanization process control system. This paper presents the synthesis of a fuzzy controller of heating steam temperature of the car tire vulcanization process. .
Keywords:fuzzy inference systems (FIS), fuzzy logic, vulcanization, technological process, potentially dangerous objects.
MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE PROCESS OF AVERAGING THE PROPERTIES OF BULK MATERIALS AT THEIR EXPIRATION
K.A. Melekhina, P.P. Anan’ev, A.V. Plotnikova, S.A. Shestak
The goal is to predict the properties of bulk material flowing from the hopper device. The relevance of the study is due to the lack of input data for controlling the averaging process at processing plants. In this regard, this article is aimed at identifying the transfer function of the hopper device, and the delay time between the feed and the expiration of the material, which will allow you to predict the property of the bulk material, and therefore get the initial data for the averaging process, which is not always available. This article presents an analysis of the existing flow modes of bulk materials when they flow out of a hopper device with one or more holes, the equations describing the transfer function of the hopper device, as well as the time delay between the layer feed and its expiration, are derived. Based on these equations, a mathematical model for controlling the averaging process was constructed, which relates the relative fluctuations and frequency of change in the properties of the ore material entering the hopper. The compiled mathematical model provides reserves for reducing relative fluctuations in the factory. The materials of the article are of practical value for managing the process of averaging ore material at processing plants.
Keywords:mathematic modeling, transfer-function coefficient, averaging out of behavior, granular material, fluxion.
COORDINATION ALGORITHMS FOR MANAGING LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS
D.E. Orlova,V.A. Chertov, S.I. Sigarev, S.S. Kochedykov
The article solves the problem of developing two coordination algorithms for managing large-scale projects. The first algorithm is designed to select the appropriate method of coordination when managing the projects under consideration. The algorithm is based on the thesis that the higher the threat of failure of the project plan, the higher the degree of centralization of project management should be, and the lower the threat, the less centralized the project management should be. With this approach, choosing the appropriate method of coordination actually comes down to assessing the threat level. Given that the concept of “level” is of a qualitative nature, it is proposed to characterize it by the function of belonging to gradations: “very high”, “high”, “medium”,” low”, and” zero”, and to evaluate the current threat level, use the measure of hemming proximity, which uses the zero threat level as a reference. The second algorithm is designed to select optimal coordinating solutions based on the criterion of minimum deviation of the project from the specified target state. Its novelty and originality lies in the fact that, unlike the usual optimization approach, it is built on a combination of methods of full iteration and linear programming. This made it possible to correctly take into account the fact that coordinating and design solutions are inextricably linked with each other.
Keywords:project, coordination, project Manager, project performer, membership function, algorithm
IDENTIFICATION OF THE RAMSAY LOGISTIC CURVE BY TOTAL LEAST SQUARES
Logistics curves are widely used in various fields of economics, technology, biology, chemistry. Estimating the parameters of logistic trends from the results of observations of the dynamic process in the economic system, with the aim of reliable analysis of economic indicators and predicting their future behavior, is one of the main tasks in the economy. One of the logistic models is the Ramsay function. The advantage of this function is the ability to use a linear difference equation to estimate its parameters. At the same time, non-linear data transformations are not required as for the logistics functions of Ferhulst or Gompertz. Modifications of a two-stage estimation algorithm based on the total least squares method and the extended instrumental variables method are proposed for estimating the parameters of the Ramsey curve.Tests have shown that the accuracy of parameter estimation using the proposed modifications is higher than the accuracy of the estimate obtained using the ordinary least squares method (LS).
Keywords:total least square, logistic curve, Ramsay function, estimation of parameters.
MODELS FOR DEFINING CONTROL MOMENTS IN MULTI-LEVEL ORGANIZATIONAL SYSTEMS
A.V. Potudinsky, A.P. Preobrazhensky
Process control in organizational systems is an activity aimed at fulfilling tasks (plans, fulfilling orders) throughout the list of system processes. To accomplish this task, management must timely evaluate the implementation of the program, monitor the tendency of performers to deviate from the planned norm and direct the resources at its disposal to eliminate these deviations. In many areas, the calculation of the number of intermediate and final results is automated, and staff can at any time know the numbers that characterize the progress. However, in areas such as construction, high technology and some others, it is rather difficult to evaluate how the program is implemented. Each operation to show the actual implementation of the program and control the timing of each type of result requires full monitoring. This is an expensive operation, often requiring a suspension of the process. Therefore, it is desirable that this be done as rarely as possible, but at the same time, the moment should not be missed when the tendency to deviation will develop into a threat to the program. The process of managing the work of an organizational system of a single-purpose type is considered, the volume of the program of which is expressed as a general equivalent – in units of output (tasks) or in cost. For programs that solve several important types of tasks, it is necessary to simultaneously monitor each type of task.
Keywords:control moment, organizational systems, program execution, modeling, single-purpose type.
MATHEMATICAL AND SIMULATION MODELING OF A CLOSED DISTRIBUTED REGISTRY WITH A CONTROL NODE
V.A. Evsin, S.N. Shirobokova, S.P. Vorobyov, V.A. Evsina
This article presents mathematical and simulation modeling of a distributed registry with a control node on the example of the raft consensus algorithm. The process of interaction between individual nodes of the distributed registry network is described, special attention is paid to the algorithm for conducting transactions within this network. The key aspect of this article is the development of a mathematical model of a distributed registry network as a Queuing system using queue theory. We consider the conceptual models of both the distributed registry as a whole and the model of the information process for accessing a cluster of notary nodes. Mathematical modeling of the distributed registry network, as well as the information process of obtaining access to the control node of the network. The state space is represented in a distributed registry with a control node. The description of an infinitesimal matrix for estimating the probability of transitions between States in a distributed registry is formed, the transition probabilities and the intensity of these processes are described. The characteristic of the laws of distribution of indicators in the system under consideration is described. Another important aspect of this article is the simulation of the process in order to identify the best combination of parameters to achieve maximum efficiency. A stack of variable indicators of the simulation model is formed. Tests were carried out on the basis of which the most effective set of characteristics was selected empirically. The results of mathematical and simulation modeling of a distributed registry with a control node are presented.
Keywords:distributed registry, DLT system, consensus algorithm, mathematical modeling, infinitesimal matrix, Queuing theory, queue theory, simulation modeling.
COMPARISON OF THE ACCURACY OF EXPERIMENTAL DATA APPROXIMATION USING THE LEAST RELATIVE SQUARES METHOD WITH THE LEAST SQUARES METHOD
A.B. Golovanchikov, M.K Doan, A.B. Petrukhin, N.A. Merentsov
The results of comparing the accuracy of approximation of experimental or tabular data obtained using the standard method of least squares (LSM) and the proposed method of least relative squares (LRSM), for example, a given table dependence of the viscosity of a water-glycerine solution on the mass concentration of glycerol. The advantage of the latter is shown as the sum and average values of the local relative deviation of calculated data of viscosity of the desired solution obtained by LRSM, with similar data obtained by standard LSM and maximum values of these relative deviations. So, calculated using LSM average relative deviations of theoretical viscosity of an aqueous solution of glycerin from the specified table, in absolute value equal to 12.9%; LRSM of 5.8%, i.e., below 2 times. Accordingly the largest relative deviations in the LSM are 17.9%, and LRSM – 10.6 %, that is, reduced by 68%. It is proposed to determine the conditional values of parallel experiments based on the experimental data of the main experiment. To do this, the calculation of conditional numerical values of the i-th parallel experience is determined by the method of piecewise linear approximation of i-1 and i+1 numerical values of the main experience or table data. A correlation analysis is performed to determine the correlation coefficients, reproducibility, adequacy, and significance of the coefficients of the resulting regression equation.
Keywords:linearization, approximation, absolute and relative deviations, LSM and LRSM, correlation coefficient, reproducibility, adequacy, significance.