MODEL OF DYNAMIC CROP ROTATION ON THE BASIS OF THE BELLMAN EQUATION WITH FINAL HORIZON
U.S. Skvortsov, N.A. Ryndin, K.A. Amoa
The problem of the study is to determine the optimal plan for multiple periods, which take into account the economy of the object of study in a dynamic structure. As a result, this article describes a dynamic model based on the Bellman equation with a finite horizon. The object of the study is crop rotation. By maximizing the net present, expected current and future returns, the modified Bellman equation provides optimal crop planting solutions. This model takes into account perennial crop rotations with a different set of crops. The Bellman equation is a partial differential equation with initial conditions given for the last time instant for the Bellman function, which expresses the minimum value of the optimization criterion that can be achieved, provided the system evolves from its current state to some final state. Using the Matlab package, a dynamic model of crop rotation was simulated. MATLAB uses the CompEcon toolkit for solving problems of dynamic programming with discrete time or with a discrete variable. Given the final value of the current and expected profits, the problem is solved by repeatedly applying the Bellman equation.
Keywords: :Markov model, dynamic programming, Bellman equation, crop rotation optimization.
AUTOMATION OF CONTROL SYSTEM OF GROUP OBJECT TECHNICAL SERVICE
M.I. Yatsechko, S.V. Ippolitov, R.V. Repin, V.A. Malyshev
The article considers the algorithm of organization of engineering and aviation support on the example of the system of group object technical service. The essence of this algorithm is the priority assignment rule. Three priority assignment rules are identified. The first priority assignment rule is for an element that participated in the execution of a previous requisition. The second priority assignment rule is for the element that was last serviced or repaired. The third priority assignment rule is chosen at random. The performance indicators of the group object service system are determined, such as: the average time of preparation of the group object, the average number of unserved requests and the average number of recoveries made in the group object. On the basis of the selected indicators, the comparison of the efficiency of the system of preparation of maintenance systems of group objects with different priority assignment rules is made. It is shown that each priority assignment rule has its advantages. If for a group object there is the value of preparation time, then we apply the first priority assignment rule, but if in the preparation of the group object there is the value of the probability of failure, it is advisable to apply the second rule. At the moment, the third rule is applied in the preparation, which does not require the cost of creating automated control systems.
Keywords: :technical service, aviation equipment, group object, priority.
LINGUISTIC SUPPORT OF AUTOMATED CONTROL SYSTEMS AS ONE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES OF TECHNOLOGIES OF THE USER INTERACTION WITH THE COMPUTER
V.I. Sviridov, E.I. Choporova, E.V. Sviridova
The goal of the paper was to examine the issue of linguistic support of automated control systems. In spite of streamlining the process of systems control, the problem of user-computer interaction is still relevant. The article examined the linguistic support of automated control systems in the user-computer dialogue as an underexplored means of ensuring their interaction. The authors offered the classification of linguistic means as ways of maintaining the dialogue between a computer and a human being. They also suggested the language structures whose knowledge is essential for a user. Therefore, the paper considers the linguistic support of automated control systems for building technologies of user-computer interaction. The conditions of the system functioning in the dialogue mode are determined. The paper clarifies the scope and content of the concept “dialogue” as applied to the automated solution of economic problems in modern production. Thus, there were made some conclusions stated that the multipurpose dialogue with the management staff’s computer involves hardly feasible factors as well as circumstances of the current economic situation along with the stuff’s professional competence that affects the linguistic way of user-computer interaction.
Keywords: :dichotomous programming method, construction cost function, optimal development model, urban development plan, modification of the branch and bound method, lower estimates.
ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES USED FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS
A.V. Shapovalov, A.P. Preobrazhenskiy, O.N. Choporov
The paper discusses the features of solving problems related to the processes of project management in organizations. The characteristics of companies using the project approach are given. The formulation of the problem associated with the choice of projects from a variety of alternatives is given. It is demonstrated how the characteristics of the projects are evaluated. The strategy of the organization affects the maximum number of project options possible with the formed portfolio of projects. The methodology and approaches used in the process of evaluating the effectiveness of projects: the method of multi-criteria evaluation, linear programming model 0-1 Integer, integer programming model. In order to effectively manage project portfolios, it is proposed to select a set of parameters from the point of view of which there should be an assessment of projects and their portfolios in the process of deciding on the inclusion of projects in portfolios or in the selection of portfolios. Project optimization models in companies are based on the methodology of operations research. Through a combination of optimization methods and decision-making methods, you can select the desired set of projects that lead to maximum benefit. Restrictions in the formed multicriteria problem can be different, for example technological, resource.
Keywords: :project, management, project portfolio, optimization methods.
TECHNIQUE OF MULTI-CRITERIAL ASSESSMENT OF COMPETENCE IN THE TASK OF FORMATION OF WORKING GROUPS FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF UNIQUE PROJECTS
N.A. Aleynikova, G.V. Shurshikova
The task of multi-criteria evaluation of the competencies and potential of the employees of the organization is investigated with a view to further distributing them among the works with the greatest efficiency. We believe that the work (tasks) are performed in the framework of a unique project. It is necessary to choose mathematical tools for the formalization of the task of selecting employees, since their competences and potential are evaluated according to a set of qualitative criteria, to develop a methodology for managing working groups. As a basic model for the optimal distribution of employees by work, it is proposed to use the assignment task model. The coefficients of its objective function, which are integral assessments of employees’ competencies, are proposed to be determined using the hierarchy analysis method (AHP). AHP allows you to create a clear structure linking the tasks within the project, the employees and the competencies that they should have, for finding the weights of the employees relative to each task. In the framework of the AHP, there is a problem of inconsistency of matrices of pairwise comparisons, which does not allow to get adequate weights for employees and, of course, correctly evaluate the coefficients of the objective function in the assignment problem. To overcome the inconsistency problem, it is proposed to use the mathematical apparatus of tropical (idempotent) mathematics. Tropical Mathematics also provides relatively simple finite formulas for determining the weight vector of parameters to be estimated. A methodology for multi-criteria competence assessment in the task of forming working groups for the implementation of unique projects was developed. The implementation of the stages of the technique is considered by example.
Keywords: :assignment problem, expert estimation methods, hierarchy analysis method, tropical (idempotent) mathematics.
TELECOMMUNICATION TRAFFIC ANALYSIS USING ORANGE ANALYTICAL SYSTEM
S.V. Palmov, A.A. Diyazitdinova, O.Y. Gubareva
To simplify the task of ensuring information security is possible through data mining usage. This technology can be used to predict attacks on the information systems. Decision tree is one of the effective tools for predictive models building. Orange is an analytical system that contains a large number of data mining algorithms, including a decision tree. With help of the system made an analysis of real data on network attacks obtained during the experimental study, with the aim of predicting DDoS attacks. Five metrics were used to assess the quality of work: accuracy, specificity, precision, recall and F-measure. The results of the analysis are presented in tabular form. The results were compared with the forecasts created by iWizard-E, an intelligent decision support system using a modified decision tree algorithm. iWizard-E surpasses Orange in the first three metrics, but inferior in the last two. The implementation of this algorithm in the Orange and iWizard-E systems cannot be applied to analyze the data of the above type, since they form forecasts with low reliability. It is necessary to improve the decision tree aimed at improving the quality of the generated prognostic models in the context of increasing the values of the “completeness” metric.
Keywords: :artificial intelligence, data mining, Orange system, decision making, traffic, F-measure.
APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC IN THE SYSTEM OF AUTOMATIC CONTROL OF PNEUMATIC GUN SHOOTING DURING FIRE FIGHTING
A.B. Migranov, I.S. Maksyutov
The article describes the obtaining of mathematical model of technical object aircannons on the basis of methods of fuzzy logic. This topic is very relevant, because at the moment none of the existing automatic fire extinguishing systems does not provide a quick and effective elimination of fire with minimal losses. As a device for obtaining information, a thermal imager is used, which records an increase in temperature in the event of a fire and a drop in temperature in the event of a projectile entering the flame core. When the maximum value of temperature there is a change in the values of the launch angle and the control signal, adjusts the value of the pressure exerted on the projectile. Based on the formula for calculating the trajectory of the projectile, logical rules are drawn up, in which the input data are the launch angle and pressure, and at the output – the distance that the projectile will fly. The paper analyzes the characteristics of the behavior of the projectile and the result of its hit the target. On the basis of methods of fuzzy logic control system determines the area of the fire or maximizing the temperatures and calculates the rotation of the gun and distance for firing a projectile. For fire extinguishing installations (air guns) it is proposed to use an automated fire extinguishing control system based on the developed fuzzy rules.
Keywords: :fuzzy logic, fuzzy system, air gun, fire fighting.
MULTILEVEL ARCHITECTURE OF AN INTELLECTUAL MANAGEMENT DECISIONS SUPPORT SYSTEM IN RESOURCES SUPPLY SYSTEMS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
A.A. Sokolov, A.P. Tyukov, M.V. Shcherbakov, T.A. Janovsky
This article discusses the problem of providing information about energy resources consumption and distribution at an industrial machine-building plant for decision makers on energy resources procurement that keep records of energy resources consumption. The purpose of the providing is to improve the accuracy of energy resources costs planning and decision-making support in energy efficient technologies choice to minimize energy consumption. This problem is solved by using an integrated solution. The architecture of this solution is presented. It includes: (1) an energy distribution model; (2) a method of synthesis the data collection network topology for fast implementation of the data collection process to supplement the model with missing data; (3) a data quality assessment method based on decision trees; (4) a method of decision-making support in choice of new equipment to reduce energy resources consumption. The prototype of the proposed solution that implements the proposed architecture was tested at the Volgograd hardware plant and other enterprises.
Keywords: :architecture of energy management system, decision support, energy management, energy efficiency, industry, data collection.
INTELLIGENT CONTROL OF MULTISTAGE SYSTEMS OF METALLURGICAL PRODUCTION
To date, the level of development of metallurgical production imposes high requirements to production management systems and the quality of steel products, due to the development of information technology. Metallurgical production from the point of view of management and multistage character of production is a complex, large system with different characteristics of subsystems and elements of processing. Traditional methods of modeling for the management of such systems are ineffective, as one of the main problems is the choice of optimal management decisions taking into account current situations and restrictions on changes in the values of technological parameters. In this regard, there is a need to develop a methodology that would improve the management of technological systems, organize decision-making support in the face of uncertainty, to ensure the speed and accuracy of information to improve the quality of metal products and technical and economic indicators and the reliability of production. The application of new methods of analysis of complex production systems of information processing, management improvement and decision-making will improve the efficiency of enterprises and reduce the proportion of low-quality products. The aim of the study is to use new methods of analysis of complex production systems of information processing, improvement of management and decision-making, which will improve the efficiency of enterprises and reduce the share of low-quality products. As a result, the formalization of the problem of integrated management of output indicators of product quality, taking into account the uncertainty of internal factors of metallurgical production. The software implementation of the algorithms will increase the efficiency of decision-making by determining the optimal technological parameters from the range of permissible values.
Keywords: :metallurgical production, intelligent control support, multi-stage technology in the context of uncertainty.