Category Archives: Social and economic systems

DEVELOPMENT OF A WIRELESS CONTROL SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF «THE INTERNET OF THINGS» CONCEPT


UDC 004.021
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2020.28.1.002

A.I. Afanasiev, V.N. Knyazev


In the article it is discussed current issues and problems of developing wireless control systems based on the concept of «Internet of Things». As important problems here there are an insufficient flexibility and efficiency of the choice of communication channels for data transmission, the insufficient protection of communication channels and the ways to solve these problems were proposed. The scientific novelty is in the development of an adaptive algorithm for selecting a channel for data transmission, which is different from the well-known algorithms by higher flexibility and reliability. The flexibility (adaptability) of the algorithm is the automatic identification of available channels, and the reliability is providing of guaranteed transfer of the control commands. Also there were proposed a modified encryption algorithm based on the combined using of a symmetric encryption algorithm GOST 34.12-2015 and an asymmetric encryption algorithm on elliptic curves, allowing to increase the level of reliability of the protected interaction between the components of the control system while ensuring a sufficient speed of message transmission. There was designed a wireless control system with using an ontological and visual modelling among other things. The results, which were received in the course of the study were used as the basis for creating hardware and software of an automated control system for «IoT» devices for a private house.

Keywords: Internet of Things, smart house, wireless interaction, control system, communication channel, encryption, ontological and visual modeling.

Full text:
AfanasyevKnyazev_1_20_1.pdf

FORECASTING OF MANIPULATIVE INFORMATION INFLUENCES
IN SOCIAL NETWORKS: TERRITORIAL ASPECT

UDC 004.415.538
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.27.4.032

V.A. Minaev, K.M. Bondar, E.V. Vaits, A.V. Kantysheva


Negative factors affecting information security of countries are described. Special attention is paid to the information-psychological effects highlighted in the Doctrine of information security of the Russian Federation. It is pointed to the expansion of the use of simulation methods for modeling information impacts on social groups and the corresponding information counteraction. The necessary definitions related to the use of the simulation approach proposed for the study of complex nonlinear systems to the modeling of information influences in social networks are given. The description of the system-dynamic model of information counteraction in the form of differential equations system is given. Simulation experiments were carried out with the model on the Anylogic software platform and analytical dependences of characteristic times reflecting the susceptibility of the population of the country’s settlements to influence through social networks, including mechanisms of negative influence, on the statistical characteristics of users were obtained. Typology of settlements of the Russian Federation on characteristics of information propagation in social networks of regions is carried out. It is concluded that the identified relationships can be used to predict manipulative information effects and planning information counteraction. In addition, it is emphasized that the simulation model allows, using statistically observed variables, to estimate parameters and variables characterizing the dynamics of information propagation in the population, which are statistically unobservable.

Keywords: simulation model, information manipulative influence, forecasting, counteraction, social network, typology, cluster analysis.

Full text:
MinaevSoavtori_4_19_1.pdf

ASSESSING MODEL OF THE TARGET LIFE INDICATORS ACHIEVEMENT IN THE RESOURCE REGION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

UDC 519.24
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.27.4.030

S.M. Lavlinskii, L.L. Yakovleva


The relevance of the study is determined by the lack of well-reasoned assessments of the level of the strategic goals achievement that were stated in the strategic development programs of Russia resource regions, taking into account the analysis of planned activities resourcing.In this regard, this article is aimed at substantiating a new method for assessing the feasibility of living standards target indicators in the development strategy of a subsidized resource region. For this, it is proposed to use a combination of the Stackelberg model and the regional forecasting model. The forecasting model is a model of socio-economic development of the resource region, adapted to the characteristics of Siberian territories. The planning model is a Stackelberg model that formally represents a two-level mathematical programming problem. This toolkit allows not only to compare various development strategies in terms of the dynamics of the living standards of the population, but also to formulate a program for developing the mineral resource base at the expense of the federal budget and ensuring the highest possible level of the region’s own income. The main principles of the methodology are illustrated by the example of the Transbaikal Territory, for which an assessment was made of the living standards target values attainability that were recorded in the Transbaikal Territory Development Strategy until 2030. The materials of the article are of practical value for management decision-makers for constitution and evaluation of regional development strategies.

Keywords: indicative planning, regional forecasting, Stackelberg model, bilevel mathematical programming problem, region development strategy, living standards.

Full text:
LavlinskiiYakovleva_4_19_1.pdf

MODELING THE SITUATION OF DEFAULTS ON BASIS OF DIFFERENTIAL CALCULUS IN ENTERPRISE INTEGRATION SYSTEM

UDC 681.3
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.26.3.034

M.L. Lapshina, D.D. Lapshin, A.V. Knyazev, S.V. Pisareva, V.V. Gorbunov


The description of the relatively stable state of the Russian economy over the past two years presents significant difficulties in terms of standard economic theory. The reasons for the permanent, but not landslide decline in production are not clear; it is not clear how several types of money coexist; unusual functions and policies of banks in the absence of investment and low profitability of production.In this paper, we consider the possibility of constructing a simulation model of an enterprise’s activity in an environment where attempts to enter the mar-ket are not always successful and failures are accompanied by serious problems with working capital, an analysis of existing formalized approaches to solving this problem is also given, and an enterprise’s work model is constructed in which sales and purchase of products occurs us-ing a two-channel system, which is characterized by non-payments (the model is stable at the same time) or with full payment (m clothing is unstable). The model takes into account qualita-tively different modes of operation of the enterprise in accordance with external parameters. It is proved that such a model stimulates enterprises to join in financial and industrial groups, the role of fixed costs in the economy and the possibility of their elimination taking into account the proposed mathematical model are also considered. The conducted studies substantiate the idea of the need to create institutions of secondary redistribution of profit.

Keywords: model, enterprise, maximization, defaults, channels.

Full text:
LapshinaSoavtori_3_19_3.pdf

ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM OF PRICING USING SIMULATION MODELS IN THE CONDITIONS OF MAXIMIZATION OF PROFIT

UDC 681.3
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.26.3.032

M.L. Lapshina, D.D. Lapshin, T.V. Zaitseva, S.V. Budkova, A.A. Meshcheryakova


The issue of price formation in a free market and monopolized production continues to be relevant. The proposed work presents a mechanism for constructing simulation models of market price formation in a situation where the main factor is the desire to get the maximum profit. It is also important to consider the so-called economic structure of society (ESO), i.e. distribution of families by liquid savings. The paper proves that the desire for maximum profit in different types of societies leads to different results. The article considers the possibility of constructing a model of pricing (p) based on maximum profit, as well as the behavior of the distribution function of consumers by liquid savings x, it is proved that the result correlates with the stress function: the inflection point in x corresponds to the fact that the maximum profit fixes the price at the level characterized by the behavior of the function. In the case of convexity of function everywhere, profit maximization without regulation at the state level cannot contribute to price stabilization. The paper substantiates the feature of optimal pricing, considering the specific characteristics of society using the Pareto marginal distribution.

Keywords: simulation model, elasticity, consumption, Pareto optimality.

Full text:
LapshinaSoavtori_3_19_2.pdf

SOLVING THE PROBLEM OF PRICE OPTIMIZATION USING INVERSE CALCULATIONS

UDC 519.866.2
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.26.3.014

E.B. Gribanova


The relevance of the study is due to the high impact of price policy on the efficiency of the enterprise. The article presents a description of the method based on inverse calculations to solve the problem of price optimization. The method involves solving the problem of unconditional optimization and correction of the obtained values of the arguments taking into account the restriction. This minimizes the sum of the squares of the argument increments, taking into account the effect of the arguments on the change of the objective function. The method is more straightforward in computer implementation, in comparison with the classical methods of nonlinear optimization, optimization problem the price is reduced to unconstrained optimization and the solution of the system of equations. The article deals with the problem of formation of prices for products while maximizing profits from the sale of products and limited supply. This assumes a linear dependence of demand on price. A comparison of the obtained result with the solution of the problem in the Mathcad program using standard functions is presented. The materials of the article are of practical value for organizations in the planning of pricing policy, as well as for specialists engaged in the development of models for decision-making in the field of Economics. The presented method can be used in decision support systems.

Keywords: price optimization, inverse calculation, quadratic programming, demand forecasting.

Full text:
Gribanova_3_19_1.pdf

CONCURRENT INFLUENCE MAXIMIZATION IN SOCIAL GRAPH ON THE VORONOI GAME BASIS

UDC 519.833
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.26.3.009

B.A. Toropov


Social networks by their nature are a environment for promoting ideas, goods, technology and innovations in a broad sense. The decision of an individual to accept or reject the promoted innovation depends to a significant extent on the decisions of his environment in the social network. In the case of competitive distribution of two or more mutually exclusive influences in the social network, the results in the form of subsets of the network participants who fell under each of the influences will largely depend on subsets of the participants who initiated these influences. The game-theoretic model of competitive distribution of influences assumes that each influence is controlled by the player who selects the corresponding subset of participants-initiators. It is shown that such a game is essentially a game of Voronoi, carried out in a complex structured space. Some properties of the rational strategy of the player making the last move are considered, as well as the possibility of developing such a strategy with the help of greedy algorithms. Competitive centrality metrics promising for use in greedy algorithms of formation of a subset of participants-initiators by the last player are proposed. It is shown that there is a pronounced interdependence between competitive centrality in proximity, competitive centrality in intermediacy (isolating centrality) and the resulting number of network participants who fell under the influence of the player making the last move.

Keywords: social network, influence spread, concurrent influence, Voronoi game, graph, centrality.

Full text:
Toropov_3_19_1.pdf

JUSTIFICATION OF THE USE OF PROPERTIES OF INEQUALITIES IN THE QUESTION OF FORMING PRICE INDICES

UDC 681.3
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.26.3.008

M.L. Lapshina, A.A. Meshcheryakova, T.V. Zaitseva, E. A. Zaitsev


Studies on the formation of price indices, taking into account the economic situation, have never lost their relevance. The number of proposed methods for constructing indices is in the tens. Therefore, in addition to analyzing specific methods, their classification is necessary. To do this, you need to introduce general rules for describing the family of index generation methods. The paper proves inequalities for the numerical values of the indices obtained by different methods used for cutting off unsatisfactory methods that give offsets, establishes acceptable methods that are adequate to the best economic conditions. . Based on the analysis carried out, a notation system was introduced that was introduced to classify and describe various numerical methods. Special attention was paid to identifying systematic inequalities arising from the formulas for calculating indices, establishing obviously unsatisfactory methods, for which an analysis of methods for calculating indices that establish a regular bias was used. On the basis of the conducted studies, it was confirmed that the presented approach, which is the most preferable in calculating price indices, in the case of using methods based on baseline data taken from the price of products and the volumes of these products in a specific time period. The analysis confirms the adequacy of theoretical calculations, as well as the fact of the use of additional initial information in the case of the formation of analytical indices.

Keywords: indices, price, weights, methods, goods

Full text:
LapshinaSoavtori_3_19_1.pdf

CALCULATION MODEL OF LEASING PAYMENTS OF THE RENTAL EQUIPMENT

UDC 004.942
DOI:10.26102/2310-6018/2019.25.2.031

A.A. Boyko, V.V. Kukartsev


This article presents a simulation-dynamic model for calculating leasing payments for leased equipment. The model was developed based on the system dynamics method using Powersim Studio tools. In the model shown, the calculations were carried out for financial leasing, regressive payment schedule and the method of minimum deductions. This article presents a simulation-dynamic model for calculating leasing payments for leased equipment. The model was developed based on the system dynamics method using Powersim Studio tools. In the model shown, the calculations were carried out for financial leasing, regressive payment schedule and the method of minimum deductions. As a result of experiments with options, various amounts of leasing payments (depreciation, credit (loan) payments, commissions, total leasing payments, etc.) were obtained. The study conducted allows us to conclude that the simulated-dynamic model constructed is quite universal and on its basis it is possible to conduct a variety of studies concerning various aspects of equipment leasing.

Keywords: leasing, equipment, depreciation, universality, economic and mathematical modeling.

Full text:
BoykoKukartsev_2_19_1.pdf

COGNITIVE MODELING OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES POS-LOANING

UDC 519.71
doi: 10.26102/2310-6018/2019.25.2.009

N.A. Shchukina, G.I. Goremykina


The purpose of this study is to consider the possibility of applying modern intellectual methods and decision-making technologies to manage complex semi-structured systems. The research methodology is based on the use of a fuzzy cognitive approach, cause-effect relationships analysis, dynamic modeling, stability analysis of the system under consideration, and scenarios analysis. The study proposes a fuzzy cognitive approach to modeling the risk management system of POS-loaning processes in a commercial Bank. The modeling system is represented as a fuzzy oriented weighted multigraph with a pulse effect transmitted through it. The modeling process is implemented in the form of the following stages: goal definition; fuzzy cognitive map construction; impulse processes for dynamic modeling; the situation scenarios analysis and the choice of the best. The developed management system model serves as the basis for the trends analysis in the development of various situations in the POS-loaning segment. It allows to predict and simulate the behavior strategies in response to external stimuli, and to determine the governance trajectory that reduce internal risks processes POS-loaning commercial Bank. Fuzzy cognitive approach is an effective tool to support decision-making in the activities a commercial Bank risk management and can be used to model and analyze the functioning and other poorly structured socio-economic systems.

Keywords: :fuzzy cognitive modeling, fuzzy oriented weighted graph, POS-loaning, risk management system, scenario approach

Full text:
ShchukinaGoremykina_2_19_1.pdf