ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES USED FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS
V.L. Burkovsky, S.A. Barkalov, P.N. Kurochka, M.A. Pinaeva
We consider the problem of optimal (at a cost) development of the area, taking into account the restrictions on the required area of residential premises, and on the area of the land plot allocated for the construction of residential buildings. The problem of optimal development of the area was considered for the case of linear dependence of the construction cost on the number of houses of each type. The results are summarized for the case of concave dependencies of construction costs on the number of houses of each type. We consider such special cases when the amount of living space for all houses is equal or the area required for building a house is also equal for all houses. Initially, an algorithm for solving the problem for the continuous case is considered. In this variant, it is proved that the optimal solution to the problem will be a solution in which from the number of projects included in the production program for only one project the number of houses may be less than the maximum allowed, chosen for reasons of architectural diversity. The conditions are determined when the results of this statement will be valid for the integer solution. To solve the problem, the use of the branch and bound method is proposed. The main difficulty in implementing this scheme is the need to obtain lower bounds for the problem being solved. For this purpose, it is proposed to use the procedure of convexing cost functions directed to the execution of the intended production program.
Keywords: :dichotomous programming method, construction cost function, optimal development model, urban development plan, modification of the branch and bound method, lower estimates.
ON THE METHODS OF EVALUATING THE EFFICIENCY OF TARIFF POLICY IN THE REGIONAL SOCIAL SPHERE
L. L. Yakovleva
The article proposes a method of evaluating the indexation tariffs and wages strategy effectiveness in the social sphere of the region with a subsidized budget. Using the example of the Zabaykalsky Krai, the main methodological techniques are demonstrated, which allow to form an effective indexation strategy for tariffs and wages in the public sector of the social sphere, taking into account budgetary restrictions and the standard of living indicators planned in the indicative development plan of the region. For this, a simulation model is used, in which the list of regulators explicitly presents elements of the budget and tariff policy. This makes possible to assess the attainability of the region’s population level of provision with social services planned indicators, depending on the chosen policy of indexation of tariffs and wages. On real data, a scenario analysis of the decisions influence to budget constraints and the main parameters of the tariff policy was made. The proposed method expands the tools of effective management and will be useful for evaluating the effectiveness and feasibility of regional strategies and programs.
Keywords: : tariff and salary indexation strategy, simulation model, budget constraints, effective management.
CALCULATION OF REAL ESTATE RATING BASED ON STANDARDS AND USER PREFERENCES
I.S. Zelenskiy, D.S. Parygin, T.V. Smirnova
The paper discusses issues of comprehensive assessment of real estate objects consumer properties. Such an assessment is intended to serve as a basis for ranking the market offer for different types of objects. The presented research phase focuses on residential real estate and in particular apartments in apartment buildings. A review and analysis of existing approaches to assessing the quality and comfort of housing is provided. Two main groups of parameters characterizing the internal and local components of the assessment are identified. Analysis of open sources of information about the proposal of apartments conducted using the developed software solutions. On the basis of this analysis, a list of criteria for their evaluation has been formed, variants of values and three types of rating scales have been determined. The degree of importance of each criterion for the final apartment quality indicator is calculated using the method of pairwise comparisons. To account for the influence of negative parameters on the final rating, the mechanism of penalty coefficients was chosen. An own method for rating apartments has been proposed, taking into account both regulatory requirements for ensuring quality of life and user preferences. Testing of the developed method was carried out using the created prototype of the program on five sets of user preferences, demonstrating a change in the indicator of comparative importance in the matrix of pairwise comparisons according to the real estate quality criteria typical for these groups.
Keywords: : real estate object, evaluation criteria, apartment quality assessment, pairwise comparison method, user preferences, rating method.
THE FORMULATION AND SOLUTION OF SOME PROBLEMS OF THE THEORY OF INVESTMENT WITH OCCASIONAL PRIVATE BENEFITS
Y.D. Gelrud, O.V. Loginovskiy
The article discusses an alternative investment model with given probabilities of investment success and with a random distribution function of the benefits from them. A number of problems are formulated that most often arise when using this mathematical model. Submitted and solved the problem of finding the threshold for a given contract. As a result, it is shown that it is necessary to establish the value of the investment slightly higher than the threshold from which the entrepreneur evades the contract. It is shown that in exceptional cases, if an entrepreneur is indifferent between evasion and work, he decides to work. The task of finding the maximum amount of debt for a given investment threshold is investigated. It is assumed that the investor knows that if the volume is less than the investment threshold, then the entrepreneur works, and if the amount of debt is greater than the investment volume, then the entrepreneur evades, because the expected return on investment must be positive, and the investor must be insured to agree to the contract. The expected utility of an entrepreneur for a given investment threshold has been determined. The conditions were found under which the contract is optimal for an entrepreneur (subject to the break-even of investors). It is shown that in order to stimulate an entrepreneur to work, the “threshold remuneration” should be quite high (somewhere in the upper half of the expected profitability of the entrepreneur). The situation in which the private benefit is observable and verifiable is investigated. Solved the problem of determining the optimal contract between the entrepreneur and investors (compensation can be made depending on the level of private benefits). The proposed conditions for the adjustment of the contract with increasing benefits. It is shown that the optimal contract for an entrepreneur implies zero return for the investor. An analytical solution of these problems is given taking into account the stated requirements and limitations.
Keywords: : alternative investment model, entrepreneur’s expected utility, investment.
MODELING RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN RETAIL EXPRESS-LOANING ON THE KEY RISK INDICATORS
G.I. Goremykina, N.A. Shchukina
The banking sector is one of the most important structures of the market economy. In the field of loaning in the context of the digital economy requires the introduction of a new transition principle from rapid response to the risk management integration and strategic planning processes and performance management of the Bank. There has been a tendency to increase the volume of Express loaning. This leads to an increase in the need for the development of formal modeling means and the Express loaning processes analysis. The study purpose is to create and computer implementation of risk management system mathematical model in retail Express loaning. To achieve this goal, the methodology of intelligent modeling is proposed. Fuzzy logic is chosen as a modeling tool, which is successfully used to simulate the management processes of various economic systems in conditions of uncertainty, different from stochastic. The management system model is based on a system of key risk indicators in the banking sector. Computer implementation of the mathematical model was carried out in the MatLab computing environment. The introduction of the system proposed by the authors will allow for detailed monitoring of the Bank’s Express loaning processes and the changes taking place in them and to move from strategic behavior to meaningful and consistent strategic
Keywords: : risks in retail Express loaning, management system, key risk indicators, fuzzy
A SOFTWARE APPLICATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PHASE TRAJECTORY OF DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH USING OF QUALITATIVE THEORY OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS(ON EXAMPLE OF THE ORGANIZATION IN THE MANAGEMENT OF HOUSING AND COMMUNAL SERVICES)
UDC 519.688: 332.87
А.А. Popov, А.О. Kuzmina
The purpose of the article is the enhancement of the instruments for automation of the qualitative research of the dynamic system and forecasting values of the parameters, which characterize organization activities in the economy (particularly in the field of management of housing and communal services). In this article, the problem of automation of the analysis of the phase trajectory of the dynamic system is solved (organization of management of housing and communal services), using the qualitative theory of dynamic systems. The research is relevant due to the insufficient level of automation of qualitative research of dynamic systems in the economy with the economic interpretation of research results. Methods of qualitative theory of dynamic systems, which are used, allow forecasting the state of the dynamic system without numerical simulation (for example, integrating differential system, which is a model of the dynamic system). In the article is presented technique, in accordance with research of the phase trajectory of the dynamic system using the software application, was conducted. Types of phase points in the phase plane in accordance with character of behavior of the phase trajectory plane in the neighborhood of the projection of the phase point were identified. By the example of the phase trajectory analysis, which characterizes activity of organization of management of housing and communal services, opportunities of the software application, building of projection of the phase trajectory into the three planes occurs. It was identified that in the phase planes equilibrium states as «stable node» and «stable focus» are missing, but there are equilibrium states such as «unstable node», «unstable focus» and «saddle». The example of detection of the «field of attraction» of the phase trajectory in phase plane is given. Types of «fields of attraction» were identified and economic interpretation for the «fields of attraction» was given. The main directions for the enhancement of the developed software application functionality are formulated. The materials of the article present the practical value for the experts, who are forecasting state of the organization in economy, and particularly in the housing and communal services.
Keywords: : organization, management, housing and utilities, software application, automation, forecasting, qualitative research, dynamic system, phase trajectory, phase point.
GRAPH-THEORETIC APPROACHES TO MODELING ACTOR-NETWORKS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
A.A. Tselykh, M.A. Dedyulina
This paper provides results of a study on modeling actor-networks using such formalisms as hypergraphs, directed hypergraphs, hypernetworks, metagraphs, and nested metagraphs. The object of our research are actor-networks of sociotechnical systems in science and technology studies. We draw a parallel between the semantics of a fundamental mechanism of translation in an actor-network and the semantics of RDF-graph given by a 3-tuple of elements. We suggest using a 3-uniform directed hypergraph to model translation in an actor-network. The directed hyperedges represent, in a compact and natural way, the role of every actant, taking into account the orientation of a translation. To model «black box» in actor network, we suggest using hypernetworks and nested metagraphs. Packing a «black box» is equivalent to the emergence of a new functional unit, with a new name and new emergent properties. In terms of the theory of hypernetworks, «black box» in an actor-network is a hypersimplex. Real assemblage in the basis of hypersimplex is mapped to the node in a higher-order network. The system property of emergency is held due to the emergence of hypersimplexes during the transitions between the levels. Nested metagraph model allows for the links both between elements on one level and on distinct levels that is critical for modeling agentivity of a «black box» as an actant in an actor-network. We introduce graph theoretical models that allow for system studies of actor-networks using rich mathematical apparatus of a set theory (as well as fuzzy set theory). We believe our contribution will encourage the quick transition from mainly qualitative to quantitative studies in actor-network theory.
Keywords: : actor-network theory, science and technology studies, hypersimplex, metagraph, sociosemantic network.
NEURAL NETWORK MODELING OF THE INTERACTION OF LABOR MARKET SUBJECTS AND EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
T.V. Azarnova, I.L. Kashirina, A.N. Schwindt
The economy of modern Russia is characterized by a number of problems: unemployment and the unemployed population, new requirements on the part of employers for vocational education, the discrepancy between the employers ’personnel needs and the professional capabilities of university graduates. All this is a consequence of the disagreement of the most important areas of modern society – the labor market and education. The increasing complexity of tasks requiring solutions in practice leads to an increase in employers’ requirements for the level of training of graduates, which underlies the existing imbalance in the labor market according to qualitative criteria. The article presents the results of neural network modeling of the interaction of subjects of labor markets and educational services. It is shown that to assess the quality of training of specialists according to the criterion of meeting the needs of the regional labor market, indicators of the efficiency of higher education institutions can be used. The rationale for the feasibility of using graduate employment indicators for solving the problems of evaluating and analyzing the effectiveness of higher educational institutions is given. Neural network models of classification, clustering and regression are built for a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the subjects of the labor market and educational services. Revealed the presence of a strong relationship between the performance indicators of the university and the average salary of graduates in the first year after graduation.
Keywords: : labor market, monitoring, evaluation, university efficiency, neural network.
FUZZY COGNITIVE MODELING OF DEMAND CONTROL SYSTEM FOR EXPRESS LOANS
G.I. Goremykina, N.A. Shchukina
One of the main ideas to achieve the banks highest efficiency is the introduction of innovative tools considered. Intellectualization of mathematical modeling and, in particular, fuzzy cognitive approach allow to carry out intellectual decision-making process. This process give the chance modeling the person reasoning and consider his cognition. The article proposes a fuzzy cognitive approach to modeling the Express loans demand and its management system. The modeling system is represented as the fuzzy weighted oriented multigraph with transmitted impulse transmitted. The system model is implemented in the form of sequential execution of the following stages: the purpose definition; the fuzzy cognitive map construction; dynamic modeling using the impulse processes; the scenario analysis situation and the choice of the best. The program decision support system “Quill” as computer modeling tool is used. The developed model of the management system serves as the basis for the trends analysis in the development of various situations that arise during the banks work in Express loaning. It allows to predict and model behavior strategies in response to external influences, as well as to determine the management paths that allow to increase the Express loans demand.
Keywords: fuzzy cognitive modeling, Express loans, fuzzy weighted oriented graph, control system.
FUZZY MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTION AND EARLY DIAGNOSIS OF OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES OF AGRICULTURAL WORKERS IN CONTACT WITH PESTICIDES
F. A. Surkov, N. V. Petkova, S. F. Sukhovskiy
This article deals with the problem of forecasting prices for real estate in the long and medium term for management decisions. The real estate market is one of the most dynamic areas of the Russian economy. Rapidly changing factors and price dynamics require a thorough study of new advanced methods using innovative technologies. Forecasting is an integral part of the mass valuation of real estate, it is impossible to plan future expenses or to build economic development plans. The price situation described by the average prices in the residential real estate market is a fundamental object for evaluation and forecasting in the study of the residential real estate market. Based on average prices, prices are managed in the residential real estate market. These indicators are considered when forecasting the market price of real estate, which is important in the development of the subjects of the real estate market auxiliary techniques for the selection of strategic actions for the development and improvement of the housing sector. Mass valuation of real estate as a complex system requires not only the definition of the parameters characterizing the price of real estate, and the identification of dependencies that link these parameters, but also the construction of a forecast of real estate prices in the future. Market conditions are constantly changing, and time has a direct impact on all market processes and decision-making. Seasonal calibration of prices for real estate objects is executed. The idea of using artificial neural networks that meet the modern requirements of real estate valuation is analyzed and proposed. A mathematical model based on harmonic series (Fourier series) and a neural network model are constructed and analyzed. A comparative analysis of the growth trends in the value of real estate.
Keywords: time series, real estate valuation, Fourier series, statistical methods, artificial neural networks.